Key Points
- Officially ENSO neutral, with La Niña expected in the next few months.
- A warm signal persists through the next three months.
Past Weather
During the past two weeks, temperatures across the state have been 2-5 degrees above normal. “Warm and wet” is a good way to describe most of the state. However, southeastern Iowa, while warm, has received around 2 inches of rain below average. This deficit is reflected in the most recent drought monitor report, with D0 (abnormally dry) extending through southeastern Iowa. D0 is not considered drought, so Iowa is still drought-free at this time.
In the past 7 days, there was a gradient of high to low precipitation from west to east. Western Iowa received around 2-3 inches, central Iowa received 1-2 inches, and eastern Iowa received less than 1 inch. During June we expect around 1 inch of rain per week. Wind and hail reports have come in across the state this June, with hail damaging crops in western Iowa and reports of wind damage to agricultural infrastructure in northeast Iowa.
Planting Update
This week’s NASS crop progress shows 98% of corn acres planted, which is only 1% short of the 10-year planting average. Corn emergence is at 95%, which is also only 1% below the 5-year average for this time. 97% of soybean acres are planted, this is on track with the 5-year average, and 86% are emerged. Topsoil and subsoil moisture are considered adequate. In northern Iowa, soils remain fairly wet, but drying has occurred in southeastern Iowa.
Climate Outlook
The Weather Prediction Center quantitative precipitation forecast shows anywhere from 1-5 inches of rain falling across Iowa in the next 7 days. Northern Iowa should expect the greatest amounts, 3-5 inches, while southern Iowa can expect 0.25-1.5 inches. Locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight into Saturday morning, with flash floods likely in northern Iowa.
The 6-10 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows chances for above average temperatures and precipitation, so we can expect the next week or so to be on the warm and wet side, with a few days precipitation. The 8–14-day outlook (between June 28-July 4) shows temperatures continuing to stay elevated, with 50-60% chance likely above normal, and continuing the wet signal. The seasonal outlook shows a warm signal and equal chances for above or below average precipitation.
ENSO neutral conditions have officially been issued, with a La Niña watch in place. La Niña is expected to develop within the next several months. A rapid transition to La Niña, such as this year, can suggest that we would experience above average temperatures, but doesn’t clue us in as to what precipitation may be like moving forward in the growing season.
