Key Points
- Saturated soils and locally heavy precipitation continue.
- A warm signal persists through the next three months as ENSO neutral is expected to transition to La Niña by this fall.
Past Weather
For most areas of the state, June brought close to average precipitation. However, this was not the case for northwest Iowa, where more than 300% of average precipitation fell during the month, with much of the precipitation arriving in 3 days. From June 20-22, more than 10 inches of rain fell in the very northwest corner of the state, leading to widespread flooding. Resources for those effected by flooding can be found here.
There is still no drought at any location in the state, but parts of eastern and southeastern Iowa are considered abnormally dry, as reflected in the most recent drought monitor. These areas reflect some of the lowest precipitation accumulations for the month of June, with less than 75% of average precipitation.
In the past 7 days, there was a gradient of warmer to cooler temperature from south to north. Southern Iowa averaged 75 degrees, while northern Iowa averaged 68 degrees. These temperatures were normal to slightly above normal in southern Iowa and below normal for most of northern Iowa.
Crop Update
This week’s NASS crop progress shows corn conditions are 73% good to excellent, which is down 4% from last week. Soybean conditions are 72% good to excellent, which is down 2% from last week. Moisture availability will help dampen temperature stress on the plants, especially those acres which are entering the reproductive stages. 4% of corn acres are silking and 19% of soybean acres are blooming. With close to normal temperatures and sufficient moisture availability for much of the state, temperature stress is not likely at the moment, but continue to monitor as the season progresses.
Climate Outlook
The Weather Prediction Center quantitative precipitation forecast shows anywhere from 1-5 inches of rain falling across Iowa in the next 7 days. Northern Iowa should expect around 2 inches, while southeast Iowa can expect nearly 5 inches. Summer precipitation events are highly spatially variable, so local amounts may vary.
The 6-10 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows chances for below average temperatures and precipitation, so we can expect the next week or so to be on the cooler side. The 8–14-day outlook (between July 10-16) shows temperatures warming back up to stay elevated, with 40-50% chance leaning above normal, and continuing to lean below average for precipitation. The seasonal outlook shows a warm signal and equal chances for above or below average precipitation.
ENSO neutral conditions have officially been issued, with a La Niña watch in place. La Niña is expected to develop and be in place within the next several months. A rapid transition to La Niña, such as this year, can suggest that we would experience above average temperatures, but doesn’t clue us in as to what precipitation may be like moving forward in the growing season.
