Key Points
- No dryness is reported across the entire state by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
- A warm signal persists through the next three months as ENSO neutral is expected to transition to La Niña by this fall.
Past Weather
For the first time in 219 weeks, there is no dryness present in the entire state, as reported by the Drought Monitor. This year has been the 6th wettest January through July out of 132 years. During the past week, western Iowa received less than 0.25” and eastern Iowa received from 1-3.5” of rain. Isolated storms cause more than 200% of average rain to fall in some areas, while many areas in the state received less than 50% of normal precipitation.
Daily temperatures in the past week averaged around 71-79 degrees Fahrenheit, which is around 1-3 degrees warmer than normal. Daily temperature is the average between daily high and low temperatures. During mid-July, daily high temperatures of around 85 degrees and daily low temperatures around 65 degrees are expected.
Crop Update
This week’s NASS crop progress shows corn conditions are 74% good to excellent, which is down 2% from last week. Soybean conditions are 72% good to excellent, which is down 4% from last week. There is variability across the state in terms of reproductive stages of crops due to variable planting dates and replating because of the rainy spring. 44% of corn acres are silking and 50% of soybean acres are blooming. Isolated hail damage has occurred in July on some acres in southwest and north central Iowa.
Climate Outlook
The Weather Prediction Center quantitative precipitation forecast shows anywhere from 0.01-1.00 inches of rain falling across Iowa in the next 7 days. Much of the state is expected to receive very little rain. Western Iowa is forecasted to receive the greatest amounts. Summer precipitation events are highly spatially variable, so local amounts may vary.
The 6-10 outlook (valid July 25-29) from the Climate Prediction Center shows a warm signal across Iowa, with chances of above average temperatures increasing as we move north. Chances for precipitation are near normal. The 8–14-day outlook (between July 27-August 2) shows temperatures remaining above average, with a 50-60% chance. Precipitation chance is near normal for most of the state and leaning just slightly above for the eastern part of the state. Temperatures favorable for tar spot development are not yet a concern, given the forecasts for above average temperatures.
The 3–4-week outlook continues to show temperatures 50-55% above normal and precipitation shows equal chances for above, below or normal. The one month outlook for August that was issued yesterday, July 18, shows temperatures are expected to lean slightly above normal and precipitation has an equal chance for above, below, or normal. The seasonal outlook shows a warm signal and leaning below average for precipitation.
ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue over the next several weeks, with a La Niña watch in place. La Niña has a 70% chance of developing during August to October. Once La Niña has developed, it is expected to persist into winter, which could increase chances for a colder winter in Iowa.
