Key Points
- A warm signal persists through the next three months and a La Niña watch is in effect.
- Close to normal conditions are expected for the next several days, with a slightly elevated chance for warmth.
Past Weather
After a stretch of warm temperatures, the past couple of days have been mild across the state. Daily temperatures from the past 7 days averaged from 71-80 degrees with coolest temperatures in northern Iowa. This was anywhere from 1-5 degrees above average. Cooler temperatures will help bring us closer to average.
Year to date, northern Iowa has experienced its 3rd to 4th wettest periods on record, with northwestern Iowa receiving more than 12” of normal precipitation. Iowa is still drought free according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, however, there is some abnormal dryness creeping up from Missouri. This area in southern Iowa is lacking 3-6” of normal precipitation.
Crop Update
This week’s NASS crop progress shows corn conditions are 77% good to excellent, which is up 18% compared to last year. Soybean conditions are 76% good to excellent, which is up 23% compared to last year. There is variability across the state in terms of reproductive stages of crops due to variable planting dates and replating because of the rainy spring. Some soybean acres have yellow patches where there was excessive soil moisture or ponding. 92% of corn acres are silking and 90% of soybean acres are blooming. Isolated areas of crop damage from hail, wind, standing water, or pests and disease exist in the state, but much of the corn and soybean crop look good.
Climate Outlook
The Weather Prediction Center quantitative precipitation forecast shows anywhere from 0.10-1.50 inches of rain falling across Iowa in the next 7 days. Much of the state is expected to receive very little rain. Southern Iowa is forecasted to receive the greatest amounts, totaling 1.50” or less. This rainfall may fall too far east and not able to reduce some of the abnormal dryness as seen on the U.S. Drought Monitor, but time will tell.
The 6-10-day outlook (valid August 14-18) from the Climate Prediction Center shows a slight warm and wet signal across Iowa, with a 33-40% chance of both temperature and precipitation being greater than normal. The 8–14-day outlook (valid August 16-22) shows the slight warm signal persisting and near normal chances for precipitation.
The 3–4-week outlook shows equal chances for precipitation and temperature. The one-month outlook for August, issued July 31, shows temperatures are expected to lean slightly above normal for the southwest part of the state, and equal chances for the northeast half of the state. Precipitation is leaning slightly above normal. The seasonal outlook shows a warm signal and leaning below average for precipitation.
ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue over the next several weeks, with a La Niña watch in place. The transition to La Niña is happening slower than originally expected. La Niña has a 66% chance of developing during September to November. Once La Niña has developed, it is expected to persist into winter (74% chance) which could increase chances for a colder winter in Iowa.
